D’Artagnan’s Three Musketeers: Venezuela Joins Mercosur

The Urupema, a high performance glider manufactured by Embraer, flies, 1971. (Source: centrohistoricoembraer.com.br)

In 1971, somewhere inside a polished set of newly constructed hangars in São José dos Campos, Brazil,  you might have found a group of men huddled around the manufacturing blue prints for Embraer’s high performance glider, the Urupema, whose plan to start production ignited in response to an order filed by a club of Brazilian aeronauts. Today, nearly 18,000 employees generate $1.15m USD for Embraer in a competition for representing Brazil as one of the world’s top-performing airline manufacturers. Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, then, must command a mighty appetite for aeronautical performance, because the country he leads just purchased 190 of Embraer’s winged marvels. Hugo wants to be in the club too.

And now he is.

Thanks to Mercosur’s low tariff policies enjoyed by its members, the $270m USD deal between Brazil and Venezuela will be free of a 35% mark up on goods and services imported from member countries. That’s because after waiting since 2006, Venezuela has finally become a member of  Mercosur. Venezuela’s addition makes the trade zone the world’s 5th largest economy in terms of GDP, boosting GDP to 3.3bn USD, according to the Argentina Independent, an English online newspaper based in Buenos Aires.

How the block formed came about in 1991 when a group of South American states ratified a series of trade agreements that Brazil and Argentina had already begun practicing. This was called the Treaty of Asunción and by the final hour of their congress Mercosur was born. Mercosur originally intended to increase the strength of trade amongst emerging South American nations. Its original premise was that member states would act as a group of democracies that encourage liberal trade policies in the region. The idea was that Mercosur would be founded on the same model as the European Union. But now, according to some analysts, the group of states seem to neglect their original purpose for unifying. According to The Economist Mercosur now behaves more like a political union whose policies serve to guard member states against the free trade interests of the US.

Chavez says that the addition of Venezuela is a “perfect equation,” reports La Nación, an Argentine newspaper. Indeed Venezuela’s entrance makes for a nice little financial numbers game. Venezuela is scheduled to benefit thoroughly as it will be able to access sales in Brazil and Argentina for oil, which accounts for 95% of GDP and  constitutes 40% of the Venezuela’s budgeted revenue. Trade is not the only motivation, however. Chavez, whose fragile socialist experiment depends almost singularly on oil exports, also looks to Mercosur to bolster his swashbuckling political rhetoric. According to a Reuters report, Chavez announced that “Mercosur is, without a doubt, the most powerful engine that exists to preserve our independence,” referring to a renaissance of Bolívarian nationalism practiced by Chávez and his followers.

Outsiders fear, however, that Venezuela’s membership will only complicate the problems from which Mercosur already suffers, like its flimsy decision-making process, and instead promote further migration away from the group’s original goals. Mercosur faces internal troubles too. According to The Council on Foreign Relations the block still struggles with the question of how to manage unbalanced productivity and dissonant economic policies among participants. Argentina recently blocked trade with several members and even prompted Brazil to respond with its own set of barriers.

For the short term, it looks like Chavez and Venezuela will benefit from the deal in true political fashion by having a new checklist of successes to present to Venezuelan voters come elections in October, 2012.

But for those who view the trade block as a potential boon for commodities like oil and soy, the loose strings that hold together Mercosur’s democratic processes and its clumsily aligned economic policies will only appear to grow more knotted. The reason why Mercosur abandonded Paraguay is because it agreed that Paraguay violated the block’s “democracy clause.” However, admitting Venezuela, who recently backed out of the Inter-American Council on Human Rights, as a replacement doesn’t say much in favor of democracy. Financial Times’ Richard Lapper says that Mercosur’s main duo – Argentina and Brazil – continue to be focused on economic issues. Even if they are, it might be tough to see them clearly through Chavez thick clouds of talk and promise.

Is The Financial Crisis Actually an Existential Crisis?

Economists the world over scour the globe for the fastest growing companies and countries. Consumption appears to be an insatiable, thumping urge that only more might satisfy. This “blind pursuit for growth,” is what has spread to all corners of the globe.

 
And that, says a handful of authors including Joseph Stiglitz and Michael Sandal, is what we should stop – or at least it is what should come up for re-consideration.

 
According to correspondent for The Economist, Patrick Lane, the financial crisis is not so much a mechanical malady for the Western world. It is a moral one – one that needs more than just harsher regulation for banks and finance.

HSBC Gets Ensnared in Mexican Money Laundering

After a lengthy investigation, the US Senate has pointed out that HSBC ignored tell-tale symptoms of money laundering through its Mexico operations for several years, according to the Guardian in a report today. So far, the bank has not denied allegations.

The Senate’s investigative report says that the bank conducted business with a string of casas de cambio, or “money changing houses,” believed to double as nodes in drug-cartel networks. Facing potentially hefty fines, HSBC fired executives, re-assigned positions, and issued scores of apologies to US regulators.

The harsh fines come as little surprise to the bank’s Latin American compliance executive, Mr. John Root. In July of 2007 Mr. Root expressed concern toward the bank’s Mexico unit over what he perceived to be a malfunctioning anti-laundering committee. According to the Financial Times, analysts expect that HSBC could face fines as high as $1bn.

Across the past decade, the global bank already has two scoldings by regulators over poor money-laundering policy under its belt, but HSBC says that its new management team has already taken initial steps to fix its compliance policy.

To keep a wary eye on money laundering in the future might not be a task for HSBC only. As New York Magazine’s cool story on the Sinaloa Cartel tells us,  the US Senate investigation into HSBC’s behavior comes at a point in time when drug-trafficking across the US-Mexico border is not only booming, it is utterly complex -and getting increasingly global too. Other banks – not just HSBC – might want to check their cajones before shaking hands with a fresh client.

Doom Gets a Second Chance in The US.

America’s debt-ceiling crisis is snoozing, but it’s still very alive. Peter Coy of Bloomberg’s Businessweek says that if Congress doesn’t choose a “long-term plan that credibly shrinks deficits with a phased-in combination of spending cuts and higher tax revenues,” then things could get ugly on January 1st, 2013, a critical date along Washington’s schedule for treatment of the economy’s recession. His suggestion doesn’t fall far from the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson commission plan from 2010, or the Obama administration’s own 10-year plan from its 2013 budget. Coy says that to cut spending and lift tax revenues is a better route than the choice between extreme austerity and no austerity – the dichotomy Congress is currently wrestling over.

For Immigrant Small Business Owners in The US, Trust Is Still Scarce

It’s been about eight months since Jose Antonio Vargas’ June 2011 letter shook the newsrooms when it offered to the world the confession of his status and story as an undocumented immigrant.

Surprisingly, nothing has happened to him yet. Vargas is waiting. He’s still waiting to hear something from US immigration authorities in response to his letter. And he’s waiting for the laws to change too. In the meantime, he’ll continue to vigorously pound out news stories from his office in New York City.

Even though it might feel like it at times, Jose Antonio Vargas is not alone in his confusion toward the laws that US immigrants face. For a great number of immigrants who come to the US, navigating the law is like trying to solve a maze.

In the case of immigrants who seek to start their own small businesses in cities like New York, a harsh fine is usually the raw first signal of a law in existence for behavior that might have otherwise been informed by cultural norms, like punishment following the failure of New York City’s Chinatown shop owners to clean the sidewalks outside their front doors.

Failure to meet compliance is one of a number of problems that immigrant small business owners face. Scarcity of credit, unwillingness to take on borrowers with little collateral, and a strong perception of unusually high risk are tough obstacles for immigrants who own the drive to start small shops, manufacturing companies, restaurants and retail outfits.

Some problems are surmountable though. According to a blog run by the New York Times, micro-lenders like ACCION USA are filling the void where other banks see too much risk and not enough benefit. This New York-based micro-finance institution is helping to find credit resources and is putting trust in people otherwise viewed as high-risk borrowers.

But the caveat for keeping afloat does not rely on simply finding a lender who will grant you the cash flow you need. Having a great product or service is not the end of it. Keeping afloat is just as much about understanding the law, which dictates what you can and cannot do as a business. Services related to navigating regulation for immigrant small business start-ups, even though they are growing, are still not potent enough to provide what immigrants really need: an ability for being able to navigate the law supplemented by the language training needed to understand it.

For all the trickery Vargas has admitted to using for his own navigation through American society as an undocumented immigrant, he understands the law well. He knows what he’s up against. He knows where he thinks it’s broken it. He knows what he wants to fix too. And above all, he knows how he thinks it should be fixed.

That much, at least, should earn others around Vargas the trust he deserves to work toward a change and a solution. I think that is the same trust that so many immigrant small business owners do not have when they arrive for work in the American City: trust in their understanding of the law. The majority of them own good intentions, and if fortune falls on their side enough, they might just open up shop. Another open shop to join the immigrants who already make up 48% of New York City’s small business entrepreneurs should be viewed as beneficial for all.

Punishing Valentine’s Day Lovers in Malaysia Distracts from Smart Spending.

In Malaysia,  Morality police arrested 80 people on Valentine’s Day for the crime of being alone with a member of the opposite sex, a practice that makes up part of a national Islamic-inspired anti-Valentine’s day campaign that started in 2005.

Clamping down on might-have-been sweethearts is expensive punishment for Malaysia when jail terms are projected to last 2 years. Lengthy terms gauge tax payers’ contributions. From Malaysia’s vantage point, that spending could be looked at as lost fiscal resources for what might have otherwise been productive spending, like quickening the pace of Malaysia’s hot electronics export market.

Could There Be a Market for Migration?

Even though government sees disorganization, having multiple citizenships is natural and part of the future, according to an article published in The Economist. What citizenship should be based on is your conscious decision to live in a country, and that having more than one is OK if that is what you will. So stake a claim for residency, pay your taxes, and get your rights and responsibilities as a citizen in return. Sounds good in theory, doesn’t it?

But where things get tricky is when it comes to the price of gaining admission. Gary Becker, a member of the Institute of Economic Affairs, has the right medicine. He thinks that building a market for migration could work. Trading cash for a visa without the obstacle of quota lines would be the singular way for foreigners to gain access to work opportunities. So that would mean price would be dependent on an individual’s desire to live in a country, no matter what skill set, age, or background he possesses. Whomever sees the greatest benefit from migrating would put the greatest value on the price of of another citizenship.

The mistake to watch out for concerns who should set up the admissions criteria. Sure the U.S. might think that scientists and engineers will help the economy, but how many the economy needs and how they are attracted is a matter for companies to figure out, not governments. Companies know what their needs are. Meeting them is a matter of efficiency. That is why Gary Becker wants a way for companies’ human resources departments, and not government quotas, to determine the demand for citizenship.

Caught in between the booms.

As its copper mining industry quickly swells in the middle of the Gobi dessert, the landscape of Mongolia is changing too. But so is its capital, Ulaanbaatar. Stuck in between two worlds is how everyone from rural herders to expatriate security guards feel inside the mining boom that is expected to significantly push up the country’s GDP of $2,000 per capita over the next decade.