Footloose Pesos: Ecopetrol Signs $1.2bn Deal with Essar Oil, Central Bank Harnesses Currency

Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state-owned oil & gas giant, announced on August 15th that it plans to sell $1.2bn USD in crude petroleum to Essar Oil, an Indian energy firm, over the course of one year.

The Colombian energy company is the fourth largest oil & gas company in Latin America and accounts for 60% of Colombia’s production. According to company financial reports released in July, Ecopetrol’s total unconsolidated sales climbed from COP$13,868.4bn ($7.74bn USD) in 2011 to COP$14,796.0bn ($8.26bn USD) in 2012. Its earnings per share (COP$) jumped 6.0% in the same period.

The Financial Times reported that “Essar seems to be looking at diversifying crude sourcing away from Iran, and Latin America is one of their focus regions,” according to an analyst at SBI Capital. Essar’s renewed interest in Colombian oil reflects a recent boom, where production of crude has almost doubled over the past six years.

Foreign investment in Colombia’s oil industry moved from $278mil USD in 2003 to $4.3bn USD in 2011, reported The Economist. Since cultivating an increase in security coupled with a set of policies under former President Alvaró Uribe that opened up massive tracts of land for energy exploration, and increased capital with which to improve efficiency, Colombia has triggered a blossoming energy sector (though not without its problems of success). Hostility toward foreign investment shown by Bolivia, Ecuador, and Mercosur – Latin America’s other oil & gas leaders – add to Colombia’s benefit.

It should come as little surprise, then, that Finance Minister Juan Carlos Echeverry has recently deployed a tactic for slowing down the strengthening peso. The Colombian central bank plans to lift its buying of US Treasuries from $20mil USD per day to $40mil USD per day, reported Businessweek. Colombia’s currency intervention scheme is aimed at keeping prices attractive to foreign merchants as the country sniffs out more export accounts like Ecopetrol’s hopeful Indian deal.

D’Artagnan’s Three Musketeers: Venezuela Joins Mercosur

The Urupema, a high performance glider manufactured by Embraer, flies, 1971. (Source: centrohistoricoembraer.com.br)

In 1971, somewhere inside a polished set of newly constructed hangars in São José dos Campos, Brazil,  you might have found a group of men huddled around the manufacturing blue prints for Embraer’s high performance glider, the Urupema, whose plan to start production ignited in response to an order filed by a club of Brazilian aeronauts. Today, nearly 18,000 employees generate $1.15m USD for Embraer in a competition for representing Brazil as one of the world’s top-performing airline manufacturers. Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, then, must command a mighty appetite for aeronautical performance, because the country he leads just purchased 190 of Embraer’s winged marvels. Hugo wants to be in the club too.

And now he is.

Thanks to Mercosur’s low tariff policies enjoyed by its members, the $270m USD deal between Brazil and Venezuela will be free of a 35% mark up on goods and services imported from member countries. That’s because after waiting since 2006, Venezuela has finally become a member of  Mercosur. Venezuela’s addition makes the trade zone the world’s 5th largest economy in terms of GDP, boosting GDP to 3.3bn USD, according to the Argentina Independent, an English online newspaper based in Buenos Aires.

How the block formed came about in 1991 when a group of South American states ratified a series of trade agreements that Brazil and Argentina had already begun practicing. This was called the Treaty of Asunción and by the final hour of their congress Mercosur was born. Mercosur originally intended to increase the strength of trade amongst emerging South American nations. Its original premise was that member states would act as a group of democracies that encourage liberal trade policies in the region. The idea was that Mercosur would be founded on the same model as the European Union. But now, according to some analysts, the group of states seem to neglect their original purpose for unifying. According to The Economist Mercosur now behaves more like a political union whose policies serve to guard member states against the free trade interests of the US.

Chavez says that the addition of Venezuela is a “perfect equation,” reports La Nación, an Argentine newspaper. Indeed Venezuela’s entrance makes for a nice little financial numbers game. Venezuela is scheduled to benefit thoroughly as it will be able to access sales in Brazil and Argentina for oil, which accounts for 95% of GDP and  constitutes 40% of the Venezuela’s budgeted revenue. Trade is not the only motivation, however. Chavez, whose fragile socialist experiment depends almost singularly on oil exports, also looks to Mercosur to bolster his swashbuckling political rhetoric. According to a Reuters report, Chavez announced that “Mercosur is, without a doubt, the most powerful engine that exists to preserve our independence,” referring to a renaissance of Bolívarian nationalism practiced by Chávez and his followers.

Outsiders fear, however, that Venezuela’s membership will only complicate the problems from which Mercosur already suffers, like its flimsy decision-making process, and instead promote further migration away from the group’s original goals. Mercosur faces internal troubles too. According to The Council on Foreign Relations the block still struggles with the question of how to manage unbalanced productivity and dissonant economic policies among participants. Argentina recently blocked trade with several members and even prompted Brazil to respond with its own set of barriers.

For the short term, it looks like Chavez and Venezuela will benefit from the deal in true political fashion by having a new checklist of successes to present to Venezuelan voters come elections in October, 2012.

But for those who view the trade block as a potential boon for commodities like oil and soy, the loose strings that hold together Mercosur’s democratic processes and its clumsily aligned economic policies will only appear to grow more knotted. The reason why Mercosur abandonded Paraguay is because it agreed that Paraguay violated the block’s “democracy clause.” However, admitting Venezuela, who recently backed out of the Inter-American Council on Human Rights, as a replacement doesn’t say much in favor of democracy. Financial Times’ Richard Lapper says that Mercosur’s main duo – Argentina and Brazil – continue to be focused on economic issues. Even if they are, it might be tough to see them clearly through Chavez thick clouds of talk and promise.

Julian Assange Seeks Asylum in Ecuador

According to the BBC, Julian Assange is seeking political asylum in Ecuador. Ecuador’s foreign minister, Ricardo Patino,  says that Assange is being held by the Ecuadorean embassy in London and will remain under protection until a decision is made.

 
After being arrested in 2010 for disseminating a massive number of US diplomatic cables through a website called Wikileaks, Assange was threatened with extradition claims to Sweden and the US. Now, for fear of facing allegations in Sweden, where he could see a subsequent extradition to the US, Assange has applied for asylum in Ecuador.

The Ecuadorean government says that “the decision to consider Mr Assange’s application for protective asylum should in no way be interpreted as the Government of Ecuador interfering in the judicial processes of either the United Kingdom or Sweden.” However, according to a Guardian report, “assessments for asylum requests take priority over extradition claims” under UK law.

Daniel Schmitt, a co-founder of Wikileaks, says that Assange is “one of the few people who really care about positive reform in this world to a level where you’re willing to do something radical to risk making a mistake, just for the sake of working on something they believe in”. The Economist Intelligence Unit gives a democracy rating of 5.72 (89) to Ecuador, the country where Assange seeks asylum. The US (18th), where Assange faces allegations, earns top tier rank – 8.90.

Ecuador’s deputy foreign minister has offered the possibility of asylum in order to show favor for Assange and his intention to present the information he has. However, President Rafael Correa denied that statement. Until the embassy makes a decision, Assange will remain inside the safety of embassy grounds – out of reach of the hands of London police, Sweden and the US.

HSBC Gets Ensnared in Mexican Money Laundering

After a lengthy investigation, the US Senate has pointed out that HSBC ignored tell-tale symptoms of money laundering through its Mexico operations for several years, according to the Guardian in a report today. So far, the bank has not denied allegations.

The Senate’s investigative report says that the bank conducted business with a string of casas de cambio, or “money changing houses,” believed to double as nodes in drug-cartel networks. Facing potentially hefty fines, HSBC fired executives, re-assigned positions, and issued scores of apologies to US regulators.

The harsh fines come as little surprise to the bank’s Latin American compliance executive, Mr. John Root. In July of 2007 Mr. Root expressed concern toward the bank’s Mexico unit over what he perceived to be a malfunctioning anti-laundering committee. According to the Financial Times, analysts expect that HSBC could face fines as high as $1bn.

Across the past decade, the global bank already has two scoldings by regulators over poor money-laundering policy under its belt, but HSBC says that its new management team has already taken initial steps to fix its compliance policy.

To keep a wary eye on money laundering in the future might not be a task for HSBC only. As New York Magazine’s cool story on the Sinaloa Cartel tells us,  the US Senate investigation into HSBC’s behavior comes at a point in time when drug-trafficking across the US-Mexico border is not only booming, it is utterly complex -and getting increasingly global too. Other banks – not just HSBC – might want to check their cajones before shaking hands with a fresh client.

Miami Merchant Ship Delivers Cargo to Havana, Cracking 50-year-old US Embargo

The ship Ana Cecilía is tugged through Miami’s port, where it will depart to Havana.

July 13th, 2012

On July 13th, direct merchant shipments from Miami to Havana Harbor started up again after 50 years of a US-enforced embargo on trade between the U.S. and Cuba, according to a report in Businessweek.

The Ana Cecilia, a sleepy, blue-hulled ship that carries a maximum of 16 containers, is operated by the International Port Corporation. Making a 16 hour trip, the Ana Cecilia shipped cargo sent from religious and humanitarian groups, and delivered packages from family and friends in Miami to Cuba’s port, where Cubans observed. Most are not phased.

“I have been fishing off the Malecon for the past 12 years… I don’t think the appearance of a new flag on the waters of Havana Harbor is going to change my lifestyle,” Businessweek quoted Daniel Herbert, a fisherman, as saying.

The Miami side shares little anxiety as well. According to a report in Portafolio, a Colombian business news journal, there is a law that says a ship cannot leave from Havana and return to Miami until after 180 days. However, IPC’s Leonardo Sánchez Adega says that there is little reason to worry about any complications, explaining that IPC possesses all of the permits that are needed to enter and exit Cuban and American waters.

US – Colombia FTA: Taking a Stab at a Better Image

Peering down toward his boots through the glass window below, a crane operator lowers the boom to snatch one of hundreds of container boxes that zoom through Colombia’s port city, Cartagena, where an expected $50bn over the next 5 years in fresh flowers, cotton textiles, and a torrent of other products now come and go cheaper than before under a free trade agreement recently signed by the US and Colombia earlier this year.

Colombia is generally optimistic about the new relationship, expecting 4.8% GDP growth in 2013, according to Reuters’ reporting. Even though its 2013 projection slouches slightly next to last year’s 5.9%, President Santos’ administration requested 185.5 trillion pesos (USD$103bn) in spending, a 12.2% nudge in investment up from 2012, a government official told Reuters.

 

The Free Trade Agreement will dismantle hefty duties and tariffs for commodities like coffee, oil, and precious metals. But it should also attract American companies and local entrepreneurs to set up in its Andean capital city, Bogotá, where increased security in recent years coupled with Colombia’s investment optimism make for a magnetic arena for doing business.

Some companies have already bitten the bullet and have decided to race to Bogotá for new opportunities.

Cincinatti-based Convergys, a company that specializes in customer relationship management (CRM) solutions, has already begun to tap into Bogotá’s thriving bilingual talent base. Convergys, whose global presence employs about 70,000 across 5 continents, chose Bogotá to set up a state-of-the-art call center. Known as “the Athens of South America,” Colombia’s capital attracted Convergys because of “the number of top-notch colleges and universities located in the city… and advanced telecommunications and transportation infrastructure,” according to a press release.

 

Richard Strub, director of operations for Convergys in Colombia, told The City Paper, a Bogotá local English-language newspaper, that “government incentives, a central location just hours from from North America and South America, and a motivated, highly educated workforce have played key roles in drawing business to Colombia, and to Bogotá.”

 

Not everyone can claim the same optimism as companies like Convergys though. Some, like Buenaventura’s port city, where roughly 80% live in poverty, could be wary of strong promises about more wealth and bounty for all. According to the Washington Office on Latin America a long history of abuse toward labor groups, who have historically occupied the violent margins of Colombia’s industrial thrusts, are still tender. Colombia Reports says that the FTA’s labor-related promises come with a rickety plan, which might not be enough to wipe clean workers’ harsh skepticism toward Colombia’s new commitment.

A sure group definitely falls in line to benefit from Colombia’s free trade kick. To educated Bogotanos the FTA means new opportunities. People like Strub and the optimism he carries should serve as signals to the rest of the world that Colombia is trying to change its image, that it is eagerly opening up for business and trade, and that the country is desperate to show off its nearing successes, not its appalling past.

Sogginess Is Expensive for Colombia

Flooding in Cali, Colombia

February 2012

Lately, life in Colombia resembles fiction more than anything else. That is foreboding considering that its literature, when not whispering about love, is strewn with scenes of political violence and the wrath of nature. This time the imagery leans more toward the latter.

Flooding that followed the Niña, a series of Pacific warm weather patterns that agitate Colombia’s wet season, caused mudslides, eroded farmland, and left a painful proportion of the country homeless.

What is worrisome is that the damage looks worse than it was last year, where costs associated with the flood stung at the touch of $5.1 billion or 2% of Colombia’s GDP. But it might not be as much of a burden to clean up. One reason the costs will not climb that high this year, according to analysts, is because after the 2010 floods, the Colombian government decided to set aside $850m for over 4,000 government led projects that intended to corral the chaos expected out of the following wet season. Seems like a good preventative step, doesn’t it?

That is how the floods are viewed from Bogotá’s perspective.  But the wrath brought on by the floods is still a very immediate threat to the real time cash flow of workers and businesses.

For the herders whose cattle are stranded while trying to graze in standing water, and for the truck drivers who cannot meet their shipping partners because the road linking them to the port city of Buenaventura is being diced up by mudslides and washouts, the costs are sure to keep feeling suffocating.

Dear Brazil, Meet Haitian Diaspora

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A tent camp in Port-au-Prince where Haitians prepare to leave for Brazil.

After passing through five countries using planes and buses, and sometimes bribes, Haitians arrived in droves at a small Amazonian town in Brazil near the Bolivian border. Prejudice toward Haitians is alive, but not universal in Brazil. But the obstacles of difference are no matter for some Haitians. New arrivals study Spanish and Portuguese in an attempt to acclimate. On one side of the dilemma Brazilian authorities are feeling overwhelmed by the struggle to absorb the diaspora that has landed on their doorstep. But on the other side of it they should feel a touch of pride. Haitians have chosen Brazil as their destination because they are looking for work, and that is what Brazil’s growing economy offers right now.