Latin America Becomes Most Urbanized Region, Ripe for Entrepreneurship

UN Habitat recently released a report that paints Latin America as the most urbanized region in the world, with a projected 90% of its population living in cities by 2025.

The question of whether or not this is a good thing attracts mixed opinion. The Agence-France Press (AFP) points out that the gap in income is widening. Just as much as it is the most urbanized region, Latin America suffers the most from income inequality.

Erik Vittrup, UN-Habitat head for human settlements, is more optimistic. He told the AP that,

“We’re at the end of an era of urban explosion, with few exceptions,” said Vittrup. “We’re seeing a reduction in poverty, indigence in urban areas; unemployment is going down.”

Overall, he said, Latin America is primed for “a new urban transition to quality of life, equity and sustainability.”

Even though the region might be prepped for a seminal social and economic leap, it still faces the struggle of lifting an estimated 124 million people out of poverty.

That is why Latin America’s budding centers of entrepreneurship that have come with the region’s storm of urbanization should feel as though there is more opportunity for creating new wealth than there are obstacles to stand in the way of its thumping innovation.

According to Techcrunch, a new wave of TechnoLatinas have emerged in certain cities, (think Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, Santiago, and Mexico City) where start-up “ecosystems” have already been scrambling to dig in. The Santiago-based Start-up Chile duels with the Silicon Valley for investment. Professionals with business and engineering talent are in abundance since more than half the population of Latin America is 30 years old or younger.

The ingredients to flatten out Latin America’s ugliest wrinkle – its income inequality – are all there. Now its Technolatina entrepreneurs need the sort of angel investment that descends on San Francisco’s hottest entrepreneurs. And maybe a dash of belief as well.

Untangling the Knot: Colombia Enters Peace Talks

Ask most any Colombian living today and a sad, knotted up story from somewhere within the past 50 years comes out. Some are told by sons of fathers whose credibility crumbled after defending Marxist drug-dealers. Some are told by the sons of fathers whose lives were taken during Medellín’s cartel violence in the 1980s. Some are the fathers of daughters whose lives were taken hostage for years on end. Fortunately, many of those stories are rare in 21st century Colombia. But a handful of Marxist revolutionaries still account for this Andean nation’s history of terror, which is alive but now weaker than ever before.

That terror might end soon. And with it, a deeply complex anxiety and distrust that plagues many parts of Colombian society.

The Financial Times reported that on August 27th, Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos and Rodrigo Londoño, leader of the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), have committed to entering into peace talks that will begin on an unknown date in October in Oslo and Havana. They will be facilitated by Venezuela and Chile. In a video broadcast from Havana on (DATE) Londoño (nom de guerre “Timochenko”) declared that “war is not the exit, but rather dialog.”

The Financial Times reported that “the 50-year old conflict costs Colombia’s $370bn economy an estimated two percentage points of output each year, has caused between 50,000 and 200,000 deaths and displaced up to 3m people.” The opportunity for a peace deal brings the possibility of impressive savings for Colombia’s national government. The Farc will be satisfied to see violence disappear as well, since the group’s numbers have dwindled by more than 50% of it’s membership in the early 2000s due to relentless military attacks authored by Uribe. But satisfaction will only be concrete if they also get concessions like policies to rid Colombia’s poverty in exchange for laying down arms.

Santos says the country will enjoy a “peace dividend” of 2% of GDP if the talks lead to success. But forgone spending, according to the Financial Times blog beyond BRICs, might not be re-routed into investment as fast as some might expect. Colombia is likely to continue high levels of spending on security even if the talks lead to Farc putting down its weapons.

Santos’ job isn’t an easy one. He has been drawn and quartered by international pressure groups, and scolded by his predecessor and former colleague, Alvaro Uribe. And even though it has not been too overbearing, foreign influence of the North American flavor is surely a worry. But if he succeeds in bringing the Farc to the table and signing a peace treaty, then both the Farc and the Colombian people could win dividends greater than just GDP savings – they could win a democracy freed from a half-century’s worth of violence and terror.

Even if Colombia and the Farc sign onto a peace deal, there are still tricky knots to untie. The drug-trafficking industry is used as a revenue instrument for the Farc. An entire industry cannot be dismantled in a flash when profits are entwined in a maddeningly complex network of international black market and legitimate trade networks. The matter of whether or not the Farc’s secretariat deserve punishment or pardon is another polemic matter that could arouse deep cracks between the government and its people and possibly rupture Colombia’s strong diplomatic relations with the US. The US, after all, has spent roughly $700mil per year mostly on Colombian military aid. It also has a bounty of $5mil on several secretariat members’ heads. However Santos and Timochenko set out to untie the knots in October, it is hoped that the stories Colombia tells will get lighter, and hopefully its people will have a chance to loosen up its gnarled past.

ECLAC Proposes Structural Reforms to Latin American Economies

Commodities are sweet little things in Latin America. Indeed, Brazil should be excited then, because recent weather data helped forecast a strong coffee crop and high prices for 2013. For Brazil and its neighbors, the past decade has seen a thumping commodities boom thanks to China’s appetite for industrialization. One might think the region’s leaders would be smiling and kicking back, enjoying the good old decade.

But they are not.

Instead serious faces worn by leaders and representatives of Latin American and Caribbean states turned toward El Salvador, where a dramatic pivot in economic policy for the region was discussed last week. The reason for serious attention is because ECLAC, a UN economic policy organization, introduced a proposal detailing a range of structural changes to Latin American economies that intend to defend against looming external business cycle shocks with new productivity reforms, which aim to bring high-value-added industry to the region. The idea here is to close the region’s painfully wide wealth gap.

Soy, oil, minerals and coffee, it seems, are no longer hot kitsch.

“History suggests that developing countries that have succeeded in converging with the more advanced countries have done so through the accumulation of technological capacity, innovation and knowledge, not on the basis of rents from natural resources,” ECLAC told Reuters.

ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) holds a summit every other year, where its representatives discuss economic policy for the region. This year, the structural proposal emerged from a concern that over-specialization on low-productivity commodities and emphasis on import-substitution action has put a drag on the region’s economic performance dating back to the 1970s.

ECLAC means well. And its proposal sounds good in theory. Latin American states wrestle with wealth inequality and a new model for encouraging productivity and capacity building could contribute to closing the gap between rich and poor. One of the region’s biggest challenges, however, is how to agree on a proposal like this. For a roster of states obeying increasingly polarized political postures, there will likely be a handful of states, such as Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Mexico, that have an appetite for the UN’s new economic proposal. Others however, like Venezuela, Cuba and even Argentina, might just as well chew it up and spit it out as if it were a bitter seed.

Student Protests Against Education Policy Turn Ugly in Santiago

In this video, aggressive clashes between Chilean students and police take place along La Alameda, one of Santiago’s major avenues, during part of a widespread protest against recent motions issued by billionaire President, Sebastian Piñera, that regard how to ease the costs for students while keeping intact a privatized system of education put into place during Augusto Pinochet’s 1973-1990 rein.

 
According to the Santiago Times, “encapuchados” battled with police in a series of violent encounters, calling for an end to what they perceive to be an education system that separates students based on socioeconomic factors. Reuters reports that one student suffered fatal wounds after being shot in the chest by police, and that more than 30 police were left injured. Some 1,300 of an estimated 200,000 protesters have been detained.

The BBC reports that Mr. Piñera recently appeared on national television to outline tax reforms expected to raise around $700m USD, much of which will be funneled to the country’s education system.

A disgruntled posture toward education policy in Chile has been maintained by student activists for more than a year now, but despite Piñera’s reforms, Chilean students are still left unsatisfied, frustrated and increasingly irate. What they fundamentally want is more regulation in the private sector and to put an end to for-profit education organizations.

Student leader Gabriel Boric told Spain’s Efe news agency, “We will carry on making history… We students will not give up the fight to make education a public right.”

Under the Stress of Development, Brazil Re-thinks Immigration

Petar Rusev, a member of the 1920s Bulgarian communist party, transformed himself and his name when he arrived in Brazil in the 1930s after fleeing political persecution. Petar became Pedro, Rusev became Rousseff, and the Bulgarian emigré started what would eventually turn out to be a successful career as a lawyer and entrepreneur. The newly made Bulgarian-turned-Brazilian met a schoolteacher from Minas Gerais and by 1947 their daughter, Dilma, was born. Dilma Rousseff, the current President of Brazil, is this immigrant’s daughter.

Brazil has a tradition of welcoming immigrants of Mr. Rusev’s sort. Since gaining independence in 1822, Brazil, much like the US, has played host to immigrants from Europe, Japan and Africa. In the 1970s it opened its arms to a throng of Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian political refugees.

Now though, in the wake of recent growth (in 2010 GDP struck 7.5%), Brazil is itching for professional talent from beyond its borders. And immigration and its lively history is not cutting it.

Reuters reports that Brazil lacks an estimated 20,000 engineers per year to keep up with its infrastructure projects. The shortage of talent is reportedly one of the reasons why Vale, a mining behemoth, has created an ambitious training program for new engineers. The mining company’s hiccup has also slowed down Foxconn’s $12bn USD investment to jump-start manufacturing iPads in Brazil.

According to Reuters, Ricardo Paes de Barros, a strategist for President Rousseff’s office, said that proposals are in the mix to attract foreign professionals and lift the proportion of professionals from abroad up to a goal of 3% from the current 0.3%.

The problem that anxious Brazil and its eager guests face is time. Time is of the essence, especially in sectors like oil & gas, where demands are immediate. To secure work in Brazil companies must justify the absence of equivalent talent in Brazil. Additionally, the Brazilian Ministry of Work sets hiring quotas, which ensure that for every foreigner hired, two Brazilians must be hired. It is by many accounts a byzantine web of bureaucracy, and even though navigating it is possible, it takes time.

Luiz Fernando Alouche, an immigration lawyer with the Almeida Advogados firm in Sao Paulo told Reuters, “hiring a foreigner in Brazil is complicated. It takes a lot of bureaucracy, time and uncertainty regarding whether it will be granted.”

It seems that there are two fronts where Brazil has to hurry. One is the matter of its bureaucratic jungle gym. Foreign professionals could very well be attracted to the country’s economic buoyancy and promise, but until Brazil relaxes its bureaucracy, the best will be scared away over the high potential loss of time.

Another is the matter of education policy, which arguably helped contribute to Brazil’s talent problem in the first place. Rousseff’s Science without Borders project, which was designed to send 100,000 Brazilians to study abroad at some of the world’s best universities, shows that the thinking about Brazil’s talent squeeze is there. The scale and the timing, however, might not be.

Footloose Pesos: Ecopetrol Signs $1.2bn Deal with Essar Oil, Central Bank Harnesses Currency

Ecopetrol, Colombia’s state-owned oil & gas giant, announced on August 15th that it plans to sell $1.2bn USD in crude petroleum to Essar Oil, an Indian energy firm, over the course of one year.

The Colombian energy company is the fourth largest oil & gas company in Latin America and accounts for 60% of Colombia’s production. According to company financial reports released in July, Ecopetrol’s total unconsolidated sales climbed from COP$13,868.4bn ($7.74bn USD) in 2011 to COP$14,796.0bn ($8.26bn USD) in 2012. Its earnings per share (COP$) jumped 6.0% in the same period.

The Financial Times reported that “Essar seems to be looking at diversifying crude sourcing away from Iran, and Latin America is one of their focus regions,” according to an analyst at SBI Capital. Essar’s renewed interest in Colombian oil reflects a recent boom, where production of crude has almost doubled over the past six years.

Foreign investment in Colombia’s oil industry moved from $278mil USD in 2003 to $4.3bn USD in 2011, reported The Economist. Since cultivating an increase in security coupled with a set of policies under former President Alvaró Uribe that opened up massive tracts of land for energy exploration, and increased capital with which to improve efficiency, Colombia has triggered a blossoming energy sector (though not without its problems of success). Hostility toward foreign investment shown by Bolivia, Ecuador, and Mercosur – Latin America’s other oil & gas leaders – add to Colombia’s benefit.

It should come as little surprise, then, that Finance Minister Juan Carlos Echeverry has recently deployed a tactic for slowing down the strengthening peso. The Colombian central bank plans to lift its buying of US Treasuries from $20mil USD per day to $40mil USD per day, reported Businessweek. Colombia’s currency intervention scheme is aimed at keeping prices attractive to foreign merchants as the country sniffs out more export accounts like Ecopetrol’s hopeful Indian deal.

D’Artagnan’s Three Musketeers: Venezuela Joins Mercosur

The Urupema, a high performance glider manufactured by Embraer, flies, 1971. (Source: centrohistoricoembraer.com.br)

In 1971, somewhere inside a polished set of newly constructed hangars in São José dos Campos, Brazil,  you might have found a group of men huddled around the manufacturing blue prints for Embraer’s high performance glider, the Urupema, whose plan to start production ignited in response to an order filed by a club of Brazilian aeronauts. Today, nearly 18,000 employees generate $1.15m USD for Embraer in a competition for representing Brazil as one of the world’s top-performing airline manufacturers. Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, then, must command a mighty appetite for aeronautical performance, because the country he leads just purchased 190 of Embraer’s winged marvels. Hugo wants to be in the club too.

And now he is.

Thanks to Mercosur’s low tariff policies enjoyed by its members, the $270m USD deal between Brazil and Venezuela will be free of a 35% mark up on goods and services imported from member countries. That’s because after waiting since 2006, Venezuela has finally become a member of  Mercosur. Venezuela’s addition makes the trade zone the world’s 5th largest economy in terms of GDP, boosting GDP to 3.3bn USD, according to the Argentina Independent, an English online newspaper based in Buenos Aires.

How the block formed came about in 1991 when a group of South American states ratified a series of trade agreements that Brazil and Argentina had already begun practicing. This was called the Treaty of Asunción and by the final hour of their congress Mercosur was born. Mercosur originally intended to increase the strength of trade amongst emerging South American nations. Its original premise was that member states would act as a group of democracies that encourage liberal trade policies in the region. The idea was that Mercosur would be founded on the same model as the European Union. But now, according to some analysts, the group of states seem to neglect their original purpose for unifying. According to The Economist Mercosur now behaves more like a political union whose policies serve to guard member states against the free trade interests of the US.

Chavez says that the addition of Venezuela is a “perfect equation,” reports La Nación, an Argentine newspaper. Indeed Venezuela’s entrance makes for a nice little financial numbers game. Venezuela is scheduled to benefit thoroughly as it will be able to access sales in Brazil and Argentina for oil, which accounts for 95% of GDP and  constitutes 40% of the Venezuela’s budgeted revenue. Trade is not the only motivation, however. Chavez, whose fragile socialist experiment depends almost singularly on oil exports, also looks to Mercosur to bolster his swashbuckling political rhetoric. According to a Reuters report, Chavez announced that “Mercosur is, without a doubt, the most powerful engine that exists to preserve our independence,” referring to a renaissance of Bolívarian nationalism practiced by Chávez and his followers.

Outsiders fear, however, that Venezuela’s membership will only complicate the problems from which Mercosur already suffers, like its flimsy decision-making process, and instead promote further migration away from the group’s original goals. Mercosur faces internal troubles too. According to The Council on Foreign Relations the block still struggles with the question of how to manage unbalanced productivity and dissonant economic policies among participants. Argentina recently blocked trade with several members and even prompted Brazil to respond with its own set of barriers.

For the short term, it looks like Chavez and Venezuela will benefit from the deal in true political fashion by having a new checklist of successes to present to Venezuelan voters come elections in October, 2012.

But for those who view the trade block as a potential boon for commodities like oil and soy, the loose strings that hold together Mercosur’s democratic processes and its clumsily aligned economic policies will only appear to grow more knotted. The reason why Mercosur abandonded Paraguay is because it agreed that Paraguay violated the block’s “democracy clause.” However, admitting Venezuela, who recently backed out of the Inter-American Council on Human Rights, as a replacement doesn’t say much in favor of democracy. Financial Times’ Richard Lapper says that Mercosur’s main duo – Argentina and Brazil – continue to be focused on economic issues. Even if they are, it might be tough to see them clearly through Chavez thick clouds of talk and promise.

Julian Assange Seeks Asylum in Ecuador

According to the BBC, Julian Assange is seeking political asylum in Ecuador. Ecuador’s foreign minister, Ricardo Patino,  says that Assange is being held by the Ecuadorean embassy in London and will remain under protection until a decision is made.

 
After being arrested in 2010 for disseminating a massive number of US diplomatic cables through a website called Wikileaks, Assange was threatened with extradition claims to Sweden and the US. Now, for fear of facing allegations in Sweden, where he could see a subsequent extradition to the US, Assange has applied for asylum in Ecuador.

The Ecuadorean government says that “the decision to consider Mr Assange’s application for protective asylum should in no way be interpreted as the Government of Ecuador interfering in the judicial processes of either the United Kingdom or Sweden.” However, according to a Guardian report, “assessments for asylum requests take priority over extradition claims” under UK law.

Daniel Schmitt, a co-founder of Wikileaks, says that Assange is “one of the few people who really care about positive reform in this world to a level where you’re willing to do something radical to risk making a mistake, just for the sake of working on something they believe in”. The Economist Intelligence Unit gives a democracy rating of 5.72 (89) to Ecuador, the country where Assange seeks asylum. The US (18th), where Assange faces allegations, earns top tier rank – 8.90.

Ecuador’s deputy foreign minister has offered the possibility of asylum in order to show favor for Assange and his intention to present the information he has. However, President Rafael Correa denied that statement. Until the embassy makes a decision, Assange will remain inside the safety of embassy grounds – out of reach of the hands of London police, Sweden and the US.

HSBC Gets Ensnared in Mexican Money Laundering

After a lengthy investigation, the US Senate has pointed out that HSBC ignored tell-tale symptoms of money laundering through its Mexico operations for several years, according to the Guardian in a report today. So far, the bank has not denied allegations.

The Senate’s investigative report says that the bank conducted business with a string of casas de cambio, or “money changing houses,” believed to double as nodes in drug-cartel networks. Facing potentially hefty fines, HSBC fired executives, re-assigned positions, and issued scores of apologies to US regulators.

The harsh fines come as little surprise to the bank’s Latin American compliance executive, Mr. John Root. In July of 2007 Mr. Root expressed concern toward the bank’s Mexico unit over what he perceived to be a malfunctioning anti-laundering committee. According to the Financial Times, analysts expect that HSBC could face fines as high as $1bn.

Across the past decade, the global bank already has two scoldings by regulators over poor money-laundering policy under its belt, but HSBC says that its new management team has already taken initial steps to fix its compliance policy.

To keep a wary eye on money laundering in the future might not be a task for HSBC only. As New York Magazine’s cool story on the Sinaloa Cartel tells us,  the US Senate investigation into HSBC’s behavior comes at a point in time when drug-trafficking across the US-Mexico border is not only booming, it is utterly complex -and getting increasingly global too. Other banks – not just HSBC – might want to check their cajones before shaking hands with a fresh client.

Miami Merchant Ship Delivers Cargo to Havana, Cracking 50-year-old US Embargo

The ship Ana Cecilía is tugged through Miami’s port, where it will depart to Havana.

July 13th, 2012

On July 13th, direct merchant shipments from Miami to Havana Harbor started up again after 50 years of a US-enforced embargo on trade between the U.S. and Cuba, according to a report in Businessweek.

The Ana Cecilia, a sleepy, blue-hulled ship that carries a maximum of 16 containers, is operated by the International Port Corporation. Making a 16 hour trip, the Ana Cecilia shipped cargo sent from religious and humanitarian groups, and delivered packages from family and friends in Miami to Cuba’s port, where Cubans observed. Most are not phased.

“I have been fishing off the Malecon for the past 12 years… I don’t think the appearance of a new flag on the waters of Havana Harbor is going to change my lifestyle,” Businessweek quoted Daniel Herbert, a fisherman, as saying.

The Miami side shares little anxiety as well. According to a report in Portafolio, a Colombian business news journal, there is a law that says a ship cannot leave from Havana and return to Miami until after 180 days. However, IPC’s Leonardo Sánchez Adega says that there is little reason to worry about any complications, explaining that IPC possesses all of the permits that are needed to enter and exit Cuban and American waters.