Colombia Looks to Turn Commodities Wealth into Development

Published in World Politics Review

Following a decade-long oil and mining boom, Colombia is facing the challenge of how to harness its energy wealth and push development forward.

Since former President Alvaro Uribe opened up Colombia’s oil and mining sectors in the early 2000s, Colombia has gone from producing just more than 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2002 to nearly 1 million bpd in 2012. Over the same period, it has seen foreign direct investment inflows jump from $2.1 billion to $15.8 billion, more than half of which was destined for the oil and mining sectors last year. Some 68 percent of Colombia’s $369 billion GDP in 2012 came from oil and mining. With the economy growing at 4 percent, the oil and mining boom has left Colombia with enough wealth to make a big difference in its development.

“Part of that growth is coming from a commodities supercycle that has clearly helped Colombia and other Latin American countries,” says Jamele Rigolini, Andean region economist at the World Bank. But growth does not always mean development. For Colombia, structural limitations behind its shining oil and mining sectors could hold development back if the country doesn’t put its energy wealth to good use.

One of those limitations is infrastructure, particularly an outdated transportation network that is eroding Colombia’s competitiveness. Manufacturers pay more to truck their products from the interior to port than it costs to ship those products from port to markets halfway around the world. Julian Trujillo, an executive at industrial adhesives manufacturer Saint-Gobain, says that the government has neglected infrastructure development, letting costs fall on businesses and in turn denting industry’s ability to compete globally.

Jorge Restrepo, professor of economics at Universidad de la Javeriana, agrees. He says that going forward, Colombia has to learn how to use its wealth to develop not just infrastructure, but also education, observing, “Those are major bottlenecks. We’ve tried, but failed. We still don’t know how to do it.”

The key, says Restrepo, is how royalties from the oil and mining sectors are managed. He says that rent-seeking behavior on the local level has gotten in the way of opportunities to reinvest royalties into development. Moving forward, a 2012 reform promoted by President Juan Manuel Santos that moves the control of royalties from local politicians to central authorities could reverse that.

In addition to the need for reforms, Colombia should feel a sense of urgency to diversify its economy. Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund cautioned that Colombia was particularly vulnerable to a downturn in oil prices, warning the energy-rich country of “overdependence on the volatile commodities sector.” More than 80 percent of Colombia’s exports are commodities right now. If commodities prices take a dive, that overdependence could come back to haunt Colombia.

Where other countries in the region, like Peru and Chile, have taken advantage of China’s commodities binge over the past decade, Colombia seemed to miss the boat. Now, even as China keeps steady with 7 percent growth, Colombia still only exports 5.5 percent of its commodities to the world’s second-largest, and energy-hungry, economy.

Rigolini says that as the commodities supercycle comes to an end, Colombia will have “to find new sources of growth to expand. And moving from a time of growth in commodities to different sources of growth is the most challenging part.”

As for Colombia’s ability to meet that challenge, there are some hopeful signs on the horizon. First, Colombia is a member of the Pacific Alliance, a regional trade bloc made up of Chile, Peru and Mexico that promotes regional free trade. As a member, Colombia is looking to benefit from expanding trade with its partners beyond commodities. If the trade bloc is as good in practice as it sounds in its leaders’ rhetoric, the alliance might be part of the solution for getting Colombia’s shrinking industrial sector going again and spurring growth in other sectors.

It might not be too late for Colombia to take advantage of China as well. China’s appetite for energy is changing, shifting away from high levels of coal consumption toward oil and natural gas, according to Beijing’s 12th Five-Year Plan. That could be an opportunity for Colombia, as right now Colombia’s energy sector is strongly positioned toward the petroleum market, with 50 percent of its commodities exports coming from crude. Last year, President Juan Manuel Santos signed preliminary agreements with China Development Bank for financing a pipeline that would link Venezuelan and Colombian oil with the Pacific coast.

“Infrastructure has to keep up with oil production,” observes Christian Gomez, director of energy at the Americas Society. “So China’s looking at this as an interesting opportunity.”

But feeding China’s new energy appetite is unlikely to be the saving grace for Colombia’s development in the long term. The other crucial ingredient for Colombia’s long-term development is whether the government arrives at a peace deal with the FARC, the country’s largest and longest-standing rebel group. Peace with the rebels would likely mean more security for Colombia’s entire economy, not just its energy infrastructure; guerrilla attacks still set back production. A peace deal could also mean less military funding and more spending on transportation, health and education in the future.

In the meantime, one country in the region Restrepo says Colombia could look to as a role model is Chile, which manages its mining royalties in a way that lets Chileans save for a rainy day and invest in development. Chile has figured out “how to transform their mining royalties into development in science, technology and infrastructure,” says Restrepo. “We envy that here in Colombia.”

Colombia’s boom is still strong, and it still has the potential to open a new chapter for the country’s development. But if Colombia fails to make smart investments and seed new sources of growth, the country’s renewed fortune could slip, making for a lost opportunity and adding regret to envy.

Bogota entrepreneurs stress need to improve startup ecosystem

November 13th, 2012 BOGOTA (Colombia Reports) – As Bogota‘s business climate warms up, a feisty cohort of entrepreneurs is struggling to develop a thriving startup ecosystem in the Colombian capital even though challenges still loom.

“I would say we are at the beginning of a wave. I’m sure it is a great wave coming for entrepreneurship here and I’m ready to surf it,” Camilo Jimenez, an entrepreneur who rents a co-working space designed to connect entrepreneurs, told Colombia Reports.

But the surf is rough for Bogota. Getting entrepreneurs to trade insight, experience and resources is one of the greatest challenges that the emerging entrepreneurial ecosystem faces.

“It’s hard for Colombians to share their ideas,” observes Juan Tejada, an aspiring entrepreneur and organizer behind Startup Criollo, an event that incubates university students’ startup ideas.

Young entrepreneurs like Tejada are trying to change that mentality by building a culture of networking events modeled after the sort of mentorship culture that characterizes more developed startup scenes.

“Building community is a must for Bogota,” adds Fernando Hurtado, another Colombian entrepreneur with an early-stage startup who was inspired to contribute to building up Bogota fledgling scene after he attended an Entrepreneurship Immersion Training Camp hosted by YouNoodle’s CEO, Rebeca Hwang, in the Silicon Valley earlier this year.

Another rough patch for entrepreneurs around the city is a scarcity of funding. Only a few angel investors and venture capital firms have chosen to turn their attention toward the Colombian capital’s nascent startup scene, and therefore young entrepreneurs find trouble accessing later stage funding.

But in spite of the challenges, the World Bank’s Doing Business 2013 report on regulations for small and medium-sized enterprises casts optimism on Colombia, reporting a more efficient and friendlier business environment for startups since 2003.

Doing Business reports that reforms cut out lengthy registration procedures, reduced the cost of starting up from 28% of income per capita to 8% and shortened the time needed for starting a business to 14 days from 60 in 2003.

And Colombian entrepreneurs are not the only ones who are growing attracted to starting up in Bogota.

Gustavo Maggi, an engineer-turned-entrepreneur from Venezuela, says he is impressed by the support and opportunities that he discovered when he came to Bogota, such as entrepreneurial development programs with Bogota Emprende, Innova, and Unidades de Emprendimiento.

“Bogota is an emerging market with many opportunities,” says Maggi, drawing the comparison to his native Caracas. But he acknowledges the trickiness of the Colombian market’s uncertainty too. “Colombia isn’t a market that adjusts itself easily to your initiatives. You have to adjust your initiatives to her.”

Bogota’s emerging startup climate has even grown friendly enough to the extent that Startup Weekend, a Seattle-based incubator supported by the Kauffman Foundation, chose Bogota as one of its November destinations.

Ana Carolina Pereira, an organizer behind the event, is determined about Bogota’s entrepreneurial flicker when she says, “we think we can turn our self into as much of a success story as the tech entrepreneurship communities in Singapore or Israel.”

Colombia regulators seize Interbolsa brokerage after cash flow clogs up

Colombian regulators seized control of Interbolsa’s brokerage arm, Colombia’s largest brokerage firm, after severe cash flow problems prevented the firm from following through on payment.

Allaying fear, President Juan Manuel Santos assured investors that their monies would not be lost, but rather transferred from Interbolsa to another brokerage firm.

The liquidity problems of the 22-year-old brokerage firm that started in Antioquia resulted from an aggressive, high-risk strategy.

“We have taken advantage of the moments the market has given us. And the greatest merit has been the capacity to let us assume risks,” Rodrigo Jaramillo, Interbolsa’s president, told El Tiempo earlier this year.

Gerardo Hernandez told Bloomberg that regulators were debating whether or not to liquidate the firm and facilitate a merger where the assets and liabilities will be assumed by another firm.

Even though investor worry is justified, Jaramillo says that the strength and solvency of Interbolsa is not in question and that clients’ assets are not at risk.

Tanja Nimeijer set to join Peace Talks in Havana

Tanja Nimeijer, a Dutch citizen, is set to join the Peace Talks between the FARC and the Colombian government in Havana as a representative for the Marxist guerrillas, according to the Colombian news magazine Semana.

Nimeijer joined the FARC after working as an English teacher in the city of Pereira. The teacher-turned-guerrilla says that she chose Colombia purely by coincidence because it offered an opportunity to fulfill a university internship requirement.

Nimeijer’s university instructors observed strong left-leaning political inclinations during her studies as a student of Romance literature in the Netherlands.

The message about the Dutch woman’s participation was reportedly not received well by the Colombian government because Nimeijer is not a Colombian citizen.

After concluding a round of press conferences in Oslo, Norway, the Peace Talks will move to Havana, Cuba. The talks between the FARC and the Colombian government began in secrecy in February of this year, and the intention to engage was made public by Juan Manuel Santos in August.

The armed conflict between the FARC and the Colombian state began in 1964.

Medellín-based Espacio Asks for Angels, Challenges Too

Fifteen years ago, Medellín, Colombia’s second largest city, resembled a diabolical sort of place. Business was corrupt. Violence was heavy. For Conrad Egusa, an entrepreneur who has practiced success in the Silicon Valley and in New York, Medellín might have been the last place on earth where he would choose to spawn his latest idea – a start-up incubator. But instead, Egusa thinks Medellín is ideal.

Along with his local partner, Edinson Alberto Arrieta Aguas, the two are hopeful about Medellín, which is the city they chose to cradle their recently launched Espacio, a start-up incubator that offers a community-driven brand of marketing, technology, and PR support to a mix of Colombian and foreign entrepreneurs. According to TechCrunch Espacio is backed by .CO, a digital enterprise web domain, and the Founder Institute.

“Medellin is unlike any other city I have been to, and the only region I can compare it to is Silicon Valley. When I arrived in the city, the more I became involved in the entrepreneurial scene here, the more I learned about the great government initiatives (from Ruta N, iNNpulsa), and the active startup scene,” Egusa told Pulso Social.

But if Espacio wants Medellín to be the next Silicon Valley, it faces some stiff competition for the title. Chile’s government-backed Start-UpChile aims to have 1,000 fledgling firms and has already established itself. And imitating the pearl of Chile’s strategy, Brazil also wants to lift prohibitive immigration laws that will make its cities more attractive to foreigners for testing their ideas in institutes like Rio’s 21212 Digial Accelerator.

Medellin And regional competition isn’t the only challenge. What Espacio has to figure out is how to lure Angel Investors – a hot matter The Economist talks about in its recent article about Latin America’s entrepreneurial climate. The final key that successful tech entrepreneurs need for solving the start-up labyrinth is private venture capital for investment in their projects. According to The Economist, even Rio and Santiago see difficulty luring angel money away from America’s innovation hubs in Silicon Valley and New York.

Egusa, however, sees the challenge from a different perspective. He says that what he perceives to be one of the most fundamental challenges is a mere lack of success stories in Colombia and even greater Latin America.

“Latin America needs to have a number of entrepreneurial success stories, which will not only catch the eye of foreign venture capitalists, but will also serve as inspiration to the next generation of entrepreneurs,” said Egusa, in an interview with PulsoSocial.

Indeed, he has now made himself into something of a ventriloquist with the power to tell those stories. And if he and Espacio don’t tell success, Medellín might watch the Angels fly right on by.

Latin America Becomes Most Urbanized Region, Ripe for Entrepreneurship

UN Habitat recently released a report that paints Latin America as the most urbanized region in the world, with a projected 90% of its population living in cities by 2025.

The question of whether or not this is a good thing attracts mixed opinion. The Agence-France Press (AFP) points out that the gap in income is widening. Just as much as it is the most urbanized region, Latin America suffers the most from income inequality.

Erik Vittrup, UN-Habitat head for human settlements, is more optimistic. He told the AP that,

“We’re at the end of an era of urban explosion, with few exceptions,” said Vittrup. “We’re seeing a reduction in poverty, indigence in urban areas; unemployment is going down.”

Overall, he said, Latin America is primed for “a new urban transition to quality of life, equity and sustainability.”

Even though the region might be prepped for a seminal social and economic leap, it still faces the struggle of lifting an estimated 124 million people out of poverty.

That is why Latin America’s budding centers of entrepreneurship that have come with the region’s storm of urbanization should feel as though there is more opportunity for creating new wealth than there are obstacles to stand in the way of its thumping innovation.

According to Techcrunch, a new wave of TechnoLatinas have emerged in certain cities, (think Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, Santiago, and Mexico City) where start-up “ecosystems” have already been scrambling to dig in. The Santiago-based Start-up Chile duels with the Silicon Valley for investment. Professionals with business and engineering talent are in abundance since more than half the population of Latin America is 30 years old or younger.

The ingredients to flatten out Latin America’s ugliest wrinkle – its income inequality – are all there. Now its Technolatina entrepreneurs need the sort of angel investment that descends on San Francisco’s hottest entrepreneurs. And maybe a dash of belief as well.

Untangling the Knot: Colombia Enters Peace Talks

Ask most any Colombian living today and a sad, knotted up story from somewhere within the past 50 years comes out. Some are told by sons of fathers whose credibility crumbled after defending Marxist drug-dealers. Some are told by the sons of fathers whose lives were taken during Medellín’s cartel violence in the 1980s. Some are the fathers of daughters whose lives were taken hostage for years on end. Fortunately, many of those stories are rare in 21st century Colombia. But a handful of Marxist revolutionaries still account for this Andean nation’s history of terror, which is alive but now weaker than ever before.

That terror might end soon. And with it, a deeply complex anxiety and distrust that plagues many parts of Colombian society.

The Financial Times reported that on August 27th, Colombia’s President Juan Manuel Santos and Rodrigo Londoño, leader of the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), have committed to entering into peace talks that will begin on an unknown date in October in Oslo and Havana. They will be facilitated by Venezuela and Chile. In a video broadcast from Havana on (DATE) Londoño (nom de guerre “Timochenko”) declared that “war is not the exit, but rather dialog.”

The Financial Times reported that “the 50-year old conflict costs Colombia’s $370bn economy an estimated two percentage points of output each year, has caused between 50,000 and 200,000 deaths and displaced up to 3m people.” The opportunity for a peace deal brings the possibility of impressive savings for Colombia’s national government. The Farc will be satisfied to see violence disappear as well, since the group’s numbers have dwindled by more than 50% of it’s membership in the early 2000s due to relentless military attacks authored by Uribe. But satisfaction will only be concrete if they also get concessions like policies to rid Colombia’s poverty in exchange for laying down arms.

Santos says the country will enjoy a “peace dividend” of 2% of GDP if the talks lead to success. But forgone spending, according to the Financial Times blog beyond BRICs, might not be re-routed into investment as fast as some might expect. Colombia is likely to continue high levels of spending on security even if the talks lead to Farc putting down its weapons.

Santos’ job isn’t an easy one. He has been drawn and quartered by international pressure groups, and scolded by his predecessor and former colleague, Alvaro Uribe. And even though it has not been too overbearing, foreign influence of the North American flavor is surely a worry. But if he succeeds in bringing the Farc to the table and signing a peace treaty, then both the Farc and the Colombian people could win dividends greater than just GDP savings – they could win a democracy freed from a half-century’s worth of violence and terror.

Even if Colombia and the Farc sign onto a peace deal, there are still tricky knots to untie. The drug-trafficking industry is used as a revenue instrument for the Farc. An entire industry cannot be dismantled in a flash when profits are entwined in a maddeningly complex network of international black market and legitimate trade networks. The matter of whether or not the Farc’s secretariat deserve punishment or pardon is another polemic matter that could arouse deep cracks between the government and its people and possibly rupture Colombia’s strong diplomatic relations with the US. The US, after all, has spent roughly $700mil per year mostly on Colombian military aid. It also has a bounty of $5mil on several secretariat members’ heads. However Santos and Timochenko set out to untie the knots in October, it is hoped that the stories Colombia tells will get lighter, and hopefully its people will have a chance to loosen up its gnarled past.

ECLAC Proposes Structural Reforms to Latin American Economies

Commodities are sweet little things in Latin America. Indeed, Brazil should be excited then, because recent weather data helped forecast a strong coffee crop and high prices for 2013. For Brazil and its neighbors, the past decade has seen a thumping commodities boom thanks to China’s appetite for industrialization. One might think the region’s leaders would be smiling and kicking back, enjoying the good old decade.

But they are not.

Instead serious faces worn by leaders and representatives of Latin American and Caribbean states turned toward El Salvador, where a dramatic pivot in economic policy for the region was discussed last week. The reason for serious attention is because ECLAC, a UN economic policy organization, introduced a proposal detailing a range of structural changes to Latin American economies that intend to defend against looming external business cycle shocks with new productivity reforms, which aim to bring high-value-added industry to the region. The idea here is to close the region’s painfully wide wealth gap.

Soy, oil, minerals and coffee, it seems, are no longer hot kitsch.

“History suggests that developing countries that have succeeded in converging with the more advanced countries have done so through the accumulation of technological capacity, innovation and knowledge, not on the basis of rents from natural resources,” ECLAC told Reuters.

ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) holds a summit every other year, where its representatives discuss economic policy for the region. This year, the structural proposal emerged from a concern that over-specialization on low-productivity commodities and emphasis on import-substitution action has put a drag on the region’s economic performance dating back to the 1970s.

ECLAC means well. And its proposal sounds good in theory. Latin American states wrestle with wealth inequality and a new model for encouraging productivity and capacity building could contribute to closing the gap between rich and poor. One of the region’s biggest challenges, however, is how to agree on a proposal like this. For a roster of states obeying increasingly polarized political postures, there will likely be a handful of states, such as Brazil, Colombia, Chile and Mexico, that have an appetite for the UN’s new economic proposal. Others however, like Venezuela, Cuba and even Argentina, might just as well chew it up and spit it out as if it were a bitter seed.

Student Protests Against Education Policy Turn Ugly in Santiago

In this video, aggressive clashes between Chilean students and police take place along La Alameda, one of Santiago’s major avenues, during part of a widespread protest against recent motions issued by billionaire President, Sebastian Piñera, that regard how to ease the costs for students while keeping intact a privatized system of education put into place during Augusto Pinochet’s 1973-1990 rein.

 
According to the Santiago Times, “encapuchados” battled with police in a series of violent encounters, calling for an end to what they perceive to be an education system that separates students based on socioeconomic factors. Reuters reports that one student suffered fatal wounds after being shot in the chest by police, and that more than 30 police were left injured. Some 1,300 of an estimated 200,000 protesters have been detained.

The BBC reports that Mr. Piñera recently appeared on national television to outline tax reforms expected to raise around $700m USD, much of which will be funneled to the country’s education system.

A disgruntled posture toward education policy in Chile has been maintained by student activists for more than a year now, but despite Piñera’s reforms, Chilean students are still left unsatisfied, frustrated and increasingly irate. What they fundamentally want is more regulation in the private sector and to put an end to for-profit education organizations.

Student leader Gabriel Boric told Spain’s Efe news agency, “We will carry on making history… We students will not give up the fight to make education a public right.”

Under the Stress of Development, Brazil Re-thinks Immigration

Petar Rusev, a member of the 1920s Bulgarian communist party, transformed himself and his name when he arrived in Brazil in the 1930s after fleeing political persecution. Petar became Pedro, Rusev became Rousseff, and the Bulgarian emigré started what would eventually turn out to be a successful career as a lawyer and entrepreneur. The newly made Bulgarian-turned-Brazilian met a schoolteacher from Minas Gerais and by 1947 their daughter, Dilma, was born. Dilma Rousseff, the current President of Brazil, is this immigrant’s daughter.

Brazil has a tradition of welcoming immigrants of Mr. Rusev’s sort. Since gaining independence in 1822, Brazil, much like the US, has played host to immigrants from Europe, Japan and Africa. In the 1970s it opened its arms to a throng of Lebanese, Syrian and Palestinian political refugees.

Now though, in the wake of recent growth (in 2010 GDP struck 7.5%), Brazil is itching for professional talent from beyond its borders. And immigration and its lively history is not cutting it.

Reuters reports that Brazil lacks an estimated 20,000 engineers per year to keep up with its infrastructure projects. The shortage of talent is reportedly one of the reasons why Vale, a mining behemoth, has created an ambitious training program for new engineers. The mining company’s hiccup has also slowed down Foxconn’s $12bn USD investment to jump-start manufacturing iPads in Brazil.

According to Reuters, Ricardo Paes de Barros, a strategist for President Rousseff’s office, said that proposals are in the mix to attract foreign professionals and lift the proportion of professionals from abroad up to a goal of 3% from the current 0.3%.

The problem that anxious Brazil and its eager guests face is time. Time is of the essence, especially in sectors like oil & gas, where demands are immediate. To secure work in Brazil companies must justify the absence of equivalent talent in Brazil. Additionally, the Brazilian Ministry of Work sets hiring quotas, which ensure that for every foreigner hired, two Brazilians must be hired. It is by many accounts a byzantine web of bureaucracy, and even though navigating it is possible, it takes time.

Luiz Fernando Alouche, an immigration lawyer with the Almeida Advogados firm in Sao Paulo told Reuters, “hiring a foreigner in Brazil is complicated. It takes a lot of bureaucracy, time and uncertainty regarding whether it will be granted.”

It seems that there are two fronts where Brazil has to hurry. One is the matter of its bureaucratic jungle gym. Foreign professionals could very well be attracted to the country’s economic buoyancy and promise, but until Brazil relaxes its bureaucracy, the best will be scared away over the high potential loss of time.

Another is the matter of education policy, which arguably helped contribute to Brazil’s talent problem in the first place. Rousseff’s Science without Borders project, which was designed to send 100,000 Brazilians to study abroad at some of the world’s best universities, shows that the thinking about Brazil’s talent squeeze is there. The scale and the timing, however, might not be.